1) New England Patriots (10-0, AFC) – The Patriots crushed Buffalo after their bye week, which was expected. If the Patriots can survive the next four games with the Philadelphia Eagles (5-5), Baltimore Ravens (4-6) and Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3) without significant injuries, they will enter the playoffs as heavy favorites and probably run the table. I think the NY Giants have a very slim chance of beating the Patriots in Week 17, as the Giant’s secondary is atrocious. I still say Pittsburgh beats New England for their only loss of the regular season.
(2) Indianapolis Colts (8-2, AFC) – I said the next two weeks would tell us whether Indy can use this opportunity to improve their reserves and enter Gillette Stadium in January with more weapons on offense and more playmakers on defense. That did not happen this week against Kansas City but at least the Colts got a win. Indy simply has too many injured players and the loss of DE Dwight Freeney to IR changes the entire face of the defense. The rest of the Colts season rests on injuries. If they have another season-ending injury to a player anywhere near Freeney’s caliber you can knock them down several spots on this list. Receivers Marvin Harrison and Anthony Gonzalez must return by the the time Jacksonville rolls into town in Week 13, otherwise WR Reggie Wayne and TE Dallas Clark are going to wear down or get hurt themselves, and Indy really cannot afford to lose that bye week in the playoffs. Week 13 will tell us whether Indy is still an elite team amidst all the injuries or whether they are ready to cede the AFC South to Jacksonville or Tennessee.
(3) Dallas Cowboys (9-1, NFC) – They are getting healthy and survived a trap game against the Washington Redskins, who are still a borderline playoff team.
(4) Green Bay Packers (9-1, NFC) – Brett Favre is a magician and the defense is phenomenal, and they ran the ball very effectively against Minnesota and Carolina. Green Bay has proven that they are the only NFC team besides Dallas that is capable of winning the Super Bowl, and if they win home field throughout, the Cowboys will be hard pressed to come in and win at Lambeau Field. I know we all love Tony Romo, but is he ready to outduel Brett Favre in the deep winter freeze?
(5) Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3, AFC) – The Steelers lost a road game to Eric Mangini and the Jets who were coming off a bye, but so did the Patriots (at home) last year when Mangini had two weeks to prepare. I still say it is enough to drop them a spot below the Green Bay Packers. However, and you heard it here first; this loss gives Pittsburgh an even better chance of beating New England. Pittsburgh saw every blitz and every wrinkle possible from a top former Belicheat assistant, and will be getting New England coming off of a Monday night slugfest with what is a very angry Baltimore Ravens team. Pittsburgh is also a team, like the Colts (with Dwight Freeney) that can get pressure rushing four, and this will be the first time that New England has seen a zone-blitzing team this season.
(6) New York Giants (7-3, NFC) – The Giants won a very important home game against Detroit which keeps them within spitting distance of Dallas for the NFC East title and locks them confortably into a playoff spot through ten games. They suffered a huge season-ending injury to LB Mathias Kiwanuka which hurts them significantly, but their offensive weapons should be enough to compensate.
(7) Jacksonville Jaguars (7-3, AFC) – The Jags are the poor man’s Pittsburgh. They pound the ball on offense with the two-pronged running attack of ageless Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. QB David Garrard does not turn the ball over, and the offense has the support of a very stout defense. The only knock on the Jags is that they are a terrible come-from-behind team. Once you force Garrard and the offense to become one-dimensional, their goose is cooked, making them the fourth most dangerous team in the AFC at best.
(8) Tennessee Titans (6-4, AFC) – The Titans have a ferocious front seven on defense but are very limited offensively. This was on display against Denver (5-5) on Monday Night. If the Titans just had slightly better personel (would a WR kill them), they would be really dangerous. Is it not time we realized that Jeff Fisher is simply one of the best coaches in NFL history? Vince Young must play better if the Titans are going to hold off Jacksonville and Cleveland to secure a playoff spot.
(9) Cleveland Browns (6-4, NFC) – The Browns just cannot be ingnored anymore. The Browns have a plethora of offensive weapons, a steady quarterback and a defense that is not a sieve. In the modern NFL that is a good recipe for success. This team took the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens right to the brink, on the road. This Browns team was a consensus pick among “experts” as one of the five worst teams in the league, yet they will be challenging Jacksonville and Tennessee for an AFC Wild Card spot. Of those three teams, Cleveland has the easiest schedule and Jacksonville the toughest.
(10) Detroit Lions (6-4, NFC) – They do not look like such a threat to the Green Bay Packers after all, do they? After two straight losses, it is becoming questionable whether Detroit can get to the ten wins that Jon Kitna predicted. I still say they make the playoffs. Have you seen the NFC?
(11) San Diego Chargers (5-5, AFC) – I said last week that their home win against Indianapolis said more good things about the Colts than it did about the Chargers. Norv Turner and Ted Cottrell have taken all the successful 14-2 pieces from Marty Schottenheimer and ruined what was a fierce defense and effective offense from last season. How the Chargers cannot run the ball on offense with LaDainian Tomlinson is incredible. How the Chargers cannot consistently pressure the quarterback and stop the run with that front seven on defense is amazing. A.J. Smith has not business being the San Diego G.M. beyond this season. After all, it is his ego that created this disaster. Maybe he did not want Marty, but he could have held onto Wade Phillips, who has shown what he can do with a Cowboy team that is no more talented than these Chargers.
(12) Tampa Bay (6-4, NFC) – They win impressively on the road coming off of their bye week. The offense is efficient running the ball and passing when necessary while the defense has game-changing speed. If the Bucs do not make the playoffs considering the cupcake schedule they play the rest of the way, Jon Gruden should probably lose his job. Their next two games against Washington and at New Orleans will either lock them into a playoff spot or send them looking for a new coach.
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