1) New England Patriots (11-0, AFC) – The Patriots struggled with the Philadelphia Eagles (5-6), and now have back-to-back physical games with the Baltimore Ravens (4-7) and Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3). The Patriots are not nearly as strong today as they were on Saturday. They finally have a couple injuries, although nothing like the Colts, and despite what the bandwagoners say the blueprint for beating the Patriots is out there. The blueprint on defense is to pressure Tom Brady and be very physical with the Patriot wideouts. The Colts and Steelers can generate pressure while rushing just four. Other teams are forced to blitz. On offense, the Patriots are vulnerable to both the run and short passing game and the Colts and Eagles exploited each weakness, respectively.
(2) Indianapolis Colts (9-2, AFC) – The Colts pounded Atlanta and now have three extra days to get healthy and prepare for the Jacksonville Jaguars. I expect the Colts to beat the Jags and secure the AFC South and #2 seed overall. Where the Colts season goes from there depends on injuries. If the Colts can get Marvin Harrison back to 100% before the playoffs, I think the development of TE Ben Utecht and WR Anthony Gonzalez in his stead will give Indianapolis a better and deeper receiving corps than the Patriots.
(3) Dallas Cowboys (10-1, NFC) – They are getting healthy and pounded the New York Jets on Thanksgiving. If they can get WR Terry Glenn 100% before the playoffs, I think Dallas certainly has the best receiving corps and possibly the most dangerous offense in football.
(4) Green Bay Packers (10-1, NFC) – Brett Favre is a magician and the defense is phenomenal, and they ran the ball very effectively against Minnesota and Carolina. Green Bay has proven that they are the only NFC team besides Dallas that is capable of winning the Super Bowl, and if they win home field throughout, the Cowboys will be hard pressed to come in and win at Lambeau Field. I know we all love Tony Romo, but is he ready to outduel Brett Favre in the deep winter freeze? I also think the Packers have the personnel that could give New England some trouble should they meet in the Superbowl.
(5) Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3, AFC) – The Steelers lost a road game to Eric Mangini and the Jets who were coming off a bye, but so did the Patriots (at home) last year when Mangini had two weeks to prepare. I still say it is enough to drop them a spot below the Green Bay Packers. However, and you heard it here first; this loss gives Pittsburgh an even better chance of beating New England. Pittsburgh saw every blitz and every wrinkle possible from a top former Belicheat assistant, and will be getting New England coming off of a Monday night slugfest with what is a very angry Baltimore Ravens team. Pittsburgh is also a team, like the Colts (with Dwight Freeney) that can get pressure rushing four, and this will be the first time that New England has seen a zone-blitzing team this season.
(6) Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3, AFC) – The Jags are a good football team. They pound the ball on offense with the two-pronged running attack of ageless Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. QB David Garrard does not turn the ball over, and the offense has the support of a very stout defense. The only knock on the Jags is that they are a terrible come-from-behind team. Once you force Garrard and the offense to become one-dimensional, their goose is cooked, making them the fourth most dangerous team in the AFC at best. If Jacksonville jumps out to a two-score lead on any team in the NFL they will be almost impossible to beat.
(7) New York Giants (7-4, NFC) – Eli Manning had a disastrous game and now all of a sudden this team does not look so hot.
(8) Cleveland Browns (7-4, NFC) – The Browns just cannot be ingnored anymore. The Browns have a plethora of offensive weapons, a steady quarterback and a defense that is not a sieve. In the modern NFL that is a good recipe for success. I think the Browns and Jaguars have the inside track on the AFC wild cards.
(9) Tennessee Titans (6-5, AFC) – The Titans have a ferocious front seven on defense but are very limited offensively. If the Titans just had slightly better personel (would a WR kill them), they would be really dangerous. Is it not time we realized that Jeff Fisher is simply one of the best coaches in NFL history? Vince Young must play better or the Titans will fall just short of the playoffs for a second straight season.
(10) San Diego Chargers (6-5, AFC) – The Chargers took another big step towards winning the AFC West and saving their season from disaster. If the playoffs were to start today, the Chargers would be slotted to have homefield advantage in a wild card game against Jacksonville with the winner advancing to play New England. The Chargers could make a lot of noise and exact some revenge on the Patriots yet.
(11) Tampa Bay (7-4, NFC) – The offense is efficient running the ball and passing when necessary while the defense has game-changing speed. The Bucs look like they will win the NFC South, although they are clearly in the second tier of the NFC.
(12) Detroit Lions (6-5, NFC) – They do not look like such a threat to the Green Bay Packers after all, do they? After three straight losses, it is becoming questionable whether Detroit can get to the ten wins that Jon Kitna predicted. The playoffs are looking doubtful at this point. I think Seattle and Philadelphia are better teams at this point in the season.
If Seattle is a better team than Detroit (which they clearly are), why aren’t they on the list?! I’d put the ‘Hawks 9th and drop everyone down a spot. I like your take though, but give the Seahawks some love!