The 2007 NFL Playoffs have finally arrived, and there are some great games (and potential games) on the horizon. Let’s delve into the playoff picture and make some predictions. The AFC, as the strongest conference and probable source of the Super Bowl winner, is a good place to start. Just about everybody is predicting a rematch between New England and Indianapolis in the conference championship game, despite the fact that both teams could face opponents in the divisional round that are well-equipped to upset them.
New England Patriots versus Jacksonville Jaguars, Pittsburgh Steelers or Tennessee Titans
Everybody knows that due to injuries, fatigue and stalled momentum the Pittsburgh Steelers are toast in the playoffs. Jacksonville is probably the biggest lock of all the teams playing opening weekend, and should easily advance. Should the Jaguars face New England, the Patriots better hope for good weather, and even that might not save them. The Jaguars could be as high as the third or fourth best team in the entire NFL. They also have a northern-style offense, physical defense, and have played well on the road against a tough schedule in 2007.
Indianapolis Colts versus San Diego Chargers, Pittsburgh Steelers or Jacksonville Jaguars
Most people would agree that although San Diego is nowhere near the team they were in 2006, the Titans have reached the end of the road here. San Diego should prevail and advance to the RCA Dome, where they are a real threat to the Colts. Besides having already defeated Indy at Qualcomm, the Chargers actually expose more weaknesses, if only minor, in the Colts than the Patriots do.
Before we make our predictions, let’s quantify rankings of the six AFC playoff teams in terms of their season.
Strength of Schedule:
(1) New England – Nobody played more tough games, especially on the road.
(2) Jacksonville – Three road wins against playoff teams, enough said.
(3) Indianapolis – The Colts dominated the toughest conference in the NFL.
(4) San Diego – The Chargers actually played a killer schedule early, just did not win any.
(5) Tennessee – Besides one bad stretch, the Titans stood up well against tough competition.
(6) Pittsburgh – If not for the Cleveland Browns, Steelers would have little to show for.
Depth of Schedule:
(1) Indianapolis – Besides Thanksgiving, the Colts never had a game off the entire season.
(2) Jacksonville – Jags had a brutal seven-game stretch in the middle of their schedule.
(3) Tennessee – Teams in the 42-22 AFC South rarely had time to breathe, yet continued winning.
(4) San Diego – Games against AFC South and NFC North gave their schedule decent depth.
(5) New England – No teams had more gimme games than New England and Pittsburgh.
(6) Pittsburgh – Stinky division foes plus games against weak AFC East and NFC West.
Quality of Wins:
(1) New England – San Diego, @Dallas, Washington, @Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, @NY Giants
(2) Jacksonville – @Tampa Bay, Tennessee, San Diego, @Pittsburgh
(3) Indianapolis – @Tennessee, Tampa Bay, @Jacksonville, Jacksonville
(4) San Diego – Indianapolis, @Tennessee
(5) Tennessee – @Jacksonville, @Indianapolis
(6) Pittsburgh – Seattle
As far as body of work is concerned, it should be pretty clear at this point that the three best teams in the AFC are New England, Indianapolis and Jacksonville.
Let’s try and rank the individual team units for each AFC playoff contender.
Offense:
(1) New England – Their QB Tom Brady is accurate, poised and almost mistake-free. He then has six quality receivers in Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Donte Stallworth, Jabbar Gafney, Benjamin Watson and Kevin Faulk. The offensive line is excellent in pass protection for him as well. NFL defenses were light years behind the Patriots when the season started but have caught up as of late.
(2) Indianapolis – The Colts have QB Peyton Manning, score 28+ points-per-game, have the highest third-down conversion rate in the NFL, and are seldom penalized. If the Colts are healthy on offense and WR Marvin Harrison is on the field to open things up for RB Joseph Addai and TE Dallas Clark, the Colts will be almost impossible to stop.
(3) Jacksonville – The Jaguars possess the ball for the majority of an average game, can run the ball on anybody, do not hurt themselves with many penalties or turnovers, and convert on third-down.
(4) San Diego – The Chargers have the best RB in football in LaDainian Tomlinson and have become more balanced on offense with the arrival of WR Chris Chambers. Philip Rivers is inconsistent, mistake-prone, and his regression as a QB is what holds this offense back.
(5) Pittsburgh – The loss of RB Willie Parker leaves the Steelers unable to make big plays. Big Ben can move the ball with RB Najeh Davenport, WR Hines Ward and WR Santonio Holmes – but the Steelers do not have the weapons to compete for long in the AFC.
(6) Tennessee – The biggest strength of the Titan’s offense is the defense and coaching that supports them. Well it’s not really that bad. Vince Young and the Titan offense can move the ball, especially on the ground, but struggle mightily to put the ball in the endzone. Costly penalties and turnovers committed by the Titan offense will probably send them home after Wild Card Weekend.
Defense:
(1) Indianapolis – The Colts have the best defense in the NFL, and it is not all that close either. They allow the fewest points per game on average, did not allow any team to score more than 25 points all season, and held New England to 24 points during a stretch when the Patriots were averaging 50 points-per-game. The Colts do it all with speed led by fast linebackers and an excellent pair of safeties based on the Tampa-2 defense. Finally, they have accomplished all these feats despite missing Dwight Freeney and suffering constant injuries on defense.
(2) San Diego – The Chargers have great personnel for their 3-4 defense under Ted Cottrell, and they force more turnovers on defense than any other team. The linebackers and secondary are elite, and the Chargers are almost as fast on defense as the Colts.
(3) Tennessee – The Titans have a ferocious front seven and a secondary that has improved throughout the season. Albert Hansworth, David Thornton, Keith Bulluck and Kyle Vanden Bosch are all stars in this league. Imagine if this defense still had Pacman Jones and could use CB Cortland Finnegan as the nickel back?
(4) Jacksonville – The Jaguars give up too many yards through the air and do not create enough turnovers to be considered an elite defense. Rookies LB Justin Durant and FS Reggie Nelson have become playmakers in this Tampa-2 scheme, which is very physical and very effective against the run.
(5) New England – The Patriots aging 3-4 defense looks much better on paper then it plays in reality. The three down lineman for the Patriots are absolute studs and make everybody else on defense look better, yet they still are average. It really does not matter how many defensive players the Patriots send to the Pro-Bowl. This unit was the team’s strength throughout the Super Bowl years, but is now clearly it’s Achilles’ heel. The Patriot linebackers have been punished in the passing game by the teams that have chosen to attack them. The bottom line is, opponents who chose to attack the talent the Patriots defense has on the field as opposed to their reputations have moved the ball with consistency and ease.
(6) Pittsburgh – The defense that most of the season has been rumored to be among the best is easily the worst on this list. The Steelers just do not stand up against either the Jaguars or the Patriots. Troy Polamalu is a stud and the Pittsburgh linebackers are top-notch, but it is not enough to prop up everybody else.
Special Teams:
(1) San Diego – Kickoff coverage is excellent. Punt coverage is average. Kicker is automatic. Kick return team is excellent.
(2) Jacksonville – Kickoff coverage is the best in the league, take away the meaningless Week 17 game against the Texans. Punt team is also excellent. Kicker is average. Kick return team is average.
(3) New England – Kickoff coverage is above-average. Punt team is excellent. Kicker is average with limited range. Kick return team is above-average.
(4) Pittsburgh – Kickoff coverage is above-average, as is punt coverage. Kicker is automatic. Kick return team is below-average.
(5) Tennessee – Kickoff coverage gives up a lot of yards but no touchdowns. Punt coverage is above-average. Kicker is automatic and clutch with incredible range. Kick return team is below-average.
(6) Indianapolis – Kickoff coverage has been terrible most of the season, as has the punt coverage. Would you believe that Adam Vinatieri is statistically the worst kicker in the AFC playoffs, including that huge miss against San Diego earlier in the season? Kick return team is also below-average. Does this clue you into why San Diego is a real threat to Indy at the RCA Dome (see above)?
Coaching:
(1) New England – You have to give Bill Belichick his due. The adjustments he makes during an average game give the Patriots an edge over most teams.
(2) Indianapolis – Tony Dungy is calm, even-keeled and positive. He brings amazing stability to the Colts, especially now that he has broken the Patriot curse.
(3) Tennessee – How did Jeff Fisher get this team into the playoffs? Do you see their personnel on offense and how it compares to other teams? He is one hell of a coach; that’s how.
(4) Jacksonville – Jack Del Rio made some tough choices this season, and has come out looking like a genius on most. His players believe in him now more than ever.
(5) Pittsburgh – Mike Tomlin has been exposed late in the season as being pretty green. His team has stalled and I doubt he will get them kick-started again this year.
(6) San Diego – The Chargers have gone 11-5 this season in spite of Norv Turner, although he has been better in the second half of the season.
Overall:
(1) New England (Score 2.2)
Strengths: Offense, Special Teams, Coaching
Weaknesses: Defense
Summary: The Patriots averaged 36.8 points-per-game this season, which would not have been enough to beat Indianapolis in the playoffs last year. How many points will it take this year against a much-improved Colts defense that has yet to yield more than 24 points in any game? What happens if the Patriots have to play the Jaguars in the same weather in which they hosted the New York Jets a few weeks ago?
(2) Indianapolis (Score 2.4)
Strengths: Offense, Defense, Coaching
Weaknesses: Special Teams
Summary: Tennessee, San Diego and New England have already beaten the champs once this season. It will be very difficult to beat them again, especially if the Colts get healthy and improve on special teams.
(3) Jacksonville (Score 3.2)
Strengths: Offense, Special Teams
Weaknesses: NONE
Summary: The Jaguars make very few mistakes, are built to win in cold weather, and have proven themselves on the road this season. Can they play error-free football and steal one in bad weather from New England?
(4) San Diego (Score 3.4)
Strengths: Defense, Special Teams
Weaknesses: Coaching
Summary: Sooner or later the athleticism and talent of the Chargers would show, even with Norv Turner as coach. Have they put it together enough to make a serious run at the Colts and Patriots? I say not.
(5) Tennessee (Score 4.4)
Strengths: Defense, Coaching
Weaknesses: Offense
Summary: Can Jeff Fisher and the defense keep the offense in the game long enough for Vince Young to make some plays and generate a few scoring drives?
(6) Pittsburgh (Score 5.2)
Strengths: NONE
Weaknesses: NONE
Summary: Due to the competition and late-season injuries, the Steelers do not stack up well for any sort of playoff run. The only impact the Steelers can make is injuring a few Jacksonville players before their showdown with New England.
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