NFL Playoff Predictions: NFC

Wild Card Weekend

(3) Seattle Seahawks versus (6) Washington Redskins

The Washington Redskins are my pick to win this game on the road. When comparing two teams to pick playoff winners, I basically look at four factors:
(a) QB Mistake Factor: How many pass attempts on offense versus interceptions thrown or sacks taken.
(b) QB Harassment Factor: How many times on defense does the team intercept or sack the opposing QB.
(c) Running Game Factor: How the rush offenses and defenses of the two teams match up.
(d) Third Down Conversion: How well each respective offense manages to stay on the field.

QB Mistake Factor: Advantage Washington. Todd Collins averages 15 pass attempts per INT/SACK versus only 12.5 for Matt Hasselbeck
QB Harassment Factor: Advantage Seattle. The Seahawks defense creates more big plays than any other team in the AFC, forcing 45 sacks, 20 INTs and 21 fumbles. Washington does not rush the passer very well and does make create many big plays in the secondary.
Running Game: Advantage Washington. The Redskins should dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides on the ball.
Third Down Conversion: Advantage Washington. The Redskins convert 40.7% of the time versus only 35% for the Seahawks.

Bottom Line: The forecast for Saturday in Seattle is rain, rain and more rain. The conditions should be sloppy at Qwest Field, giving a huge advantage to the Redskins. The Redskins should be able to run the ball extremely well on first and second down to set up very manageable third down opportunities for Todd Collins, thus limiting the impact of the turnover-hungry Seahawks defense. On the opposite time, Seattle will find no running room at all against that Washington front seven and will have a tough time passing the ball through the wind and rain. This game has Redskins upset written all over it.

(4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers versus (5) New York Giants

The New York Giants are my pick to win on the road in an exciting, close game to be played under sunny skies.

QB Mistake Factor: Advantage Tampa Bay. Jeff Garcia may be somewhat limited but he also makes very few mistakes, averaging 14.22 pass attempts per INT/SACK versus a very low 11.26 for Eli Manning. As in any Giants game, Manning is the X-Factor.
QB Harassment Factor: Advantage New York. The Giants harass opposing QBs as well as any team in the league, and I question Tampa Bay’s ability to make them pay for their blitzes and relentless pass rush. The Buccaneer defense does not rush the passer as well as you would assume.
Running Game Factor: Advantage New York. The Giants should control both lines of scrimmage from the onset on Sunday. The Giants have the second best running game in the NFC versus a below-average Buccaneer run defense. I also think New York will crowd the line of scrimmage on defense to limit an average Bucs rushing attack, thus daring Tampa Bay to beat them in the air and setting the Bucs up for third-and-long situations against that vaunted Giant’s pass rush.
Third Down Conversion: Advantage New York. The Giants convert 41.6% on third down versus 38.5% for the Buccaneers, and that number should drop considerably against the Giant defense.

Bottom Line: Others have said it and I will repeat it here, that the Buccaneers are not better than the Giants to begin with, let alone having to restart their systems after mailing in the past two games. All the intangibles are with the Giants, who are confident, motivated and play extremely well on the road. The Giants will savor the warm weather and pull out a victory here.

Divisional Round:

(1) Dallas Cowboys versus (6) Washington Redskins

Week 17 meant a lot to the Redskins and meant nothing to the Cowboys, thus it should not have any impact on your thinking. I expect the Cowboys to come out motivated and take it to the Redskins early and often.

QB Mistake Factor: Advantage Washington. Todd Collins averages 15 pass attempts per INT/SACK versus only 12.09 for Tony Romo
QB Harassment Factor: Advantage Dallas. The Cowboys get after the QB quite well and should get to Todd Collins in a possible rematch. The Dallas secondary makes quite a few plays in the average game and if they turn up the pressure on Collins they should force him into some mistakes. The Washington defense really just has to be patient with Tony Romo and see if they can help him beat himself. The Washington defense is not capable of dictating the game to Cowboy offense, but Romo has a tendency to have a stinker game now and then.
Running Game: PUSH. The Redskins will find the sledding much more difficult against the Cowboys, especially if Collins does not balance the offense with a strong passing attack. I think the Cowboys will recommit to the running game in the off week given their struggles of late and the injuries they have sustained to their wide receivers. Expect a strong running game out of the Cowboys in the divisional round. The two teams should neutralize each other in this category.
Third Down Conversion: Advantage Dallas. The Cowboys convert 42.2% on third down versus 40.7% for the Redskins. Both offenses are above-average in staying on the field.

Bottom Line: The Washington Redskins play the Cowboys tough, and could do so again in the rubber match. I just think the Cowboys will have their heads on straight and play up to their ability. The Redskin’s magic run ends here.

(2) Green Bay Packers versus (5) New York Giants

The Giants are capable of putting up a fight in this game but they will find the competition and playing conditions far worse against the Packers than the Buccaneers.

QB Mistake Factor: Advantage Green Bay. Brett Favre makes his fair share of mistakes but has been playing within the system all season and taking what the defense gives him. The Giants secondary should be quite generous. Brett Favre averages an astounding 17.8 pass attempts per INT/SACK versus 11.26 for Eli Manning.
QB Harassment Factor: Advantage New York. The Giants harass opposing QBs as well as any team in the league and could force Favre into some mistakes. The Green Bay defense should force a few more mistakes against the Giants than Tampa Bay manages, but they are nowhere near as menacing on defense as the Giants.
Running Game Factor: Advantage New York. The Giants should hold Green Bay to almost nothing on the ground to start the game, but their defense should slowly be stretched out by those four and five receiver sets that Green Bay will throw at them. Brandon Jacobs should find some running room against the Packers.
Third Down Conversion: Advantage Green Bay. The Packers have an excellent 42.6% conversion rate, slightly better than 41.6% for the Giants.

Bottom Line: You are probably looking at this game and saying to yourself that if the weather is 10-below the Giants should win. Here’s the problem. Although the Giants are a good road team, Eli Manning is terrible in cold weather and will be facing the best pair of cornerbacks in the NFL. The Giants should be able to run the ball effectively and limit Green Bay’s improving ground game, but how on earth is that terrible Giants secondary going to cover those four and five receiver sets that Green Bay will throw at them? The Giants have been terrific lately and should give a valiant effort here, but they have too many injuries and too many holes to get out of Lambeau with a victory.

Conference Championship:

(1) Dallas Cowboys versus (2) Green Bay Packers

Both teams should be healthy for this matchup, which deprived us of any real drama in their regular season matchup. It should be very exciting to see Dallas’ full complement of receivers versus a healthy Green Bay secondary. I would love to see Brett Favre go out on top like John Elway, but I think he and the Packers might be a year early.

QB Mistake Factor: PUSH. Both QBs are excellent and are going to be slinging the ball all around the field in this game. Both Brett Favre and Tony Romo have the ability to explode or implode on the big stage, and that will probably determine the winner of this game.
QB Harassment Factor: Advantage Dallas. Both defenses should force some mistakes in a game like this, but I think the Dallas secondary will be able to key in on Favre while the Packer secondary is going to have to concern themselves with the Dallas running game.
Running Game Factor: Advantage Dallas. The Cowboys run the ball well on offense and stop the run on defense, which is going to create problems for the Packers on defense. Green Bay will not have any hesitation to throw the ball almost exclusively in the expected Texas Stadium conditions, but the Packer defense will have to deal with a very balanced Cowboy air and ground attack.
Third Down Conversion: PUSH. The Packers have an excellent 42.6% conversion rate, slightly better than 42.2% for the Cowboys.

Bottom Line: The facts here are simple. The Cowboys are a more experienced team, have more experienced coaches, and Brett Favre never wins at Texas Stadium. The Cowboys know it is Super Bowl or bust for them, and they want a rematch with the New England Patriots. Having come this far, the Cowboys will not let this one slip away at home.

NFC Super Bowl Representative: Dallas Cowboys