Super Bowl XLII Preview: New England Patriots vs. New York Giants

Super Bowl XLII will be played on Sunday, February 3, 2008 in Glendale, Arizona between the favored New England Patriots and the New York Giants. Heading towards the weekend the spread sits at 12 points and the O/U at 53.5, as Vegas is obviously predicting a fairly high-scoring game by Super Bowl standards. Basically, Vegas is predicting the Patriots will win 33-20. Historical trends suggest that both the spread and the O/U are too high, considering that in the past ten Super Bowl games, only three times has the combined score been over 53 (1997, 2002, 2003), only one of those games involved a high-scoring teams (1997: Denver vs. Green Bay) and none of those games involved the Patriots. Likewise, only three of the past ten Super Bowls have ended in a spread greater than twelve points (1998, 2000, 2002), the victors in all three of those games were defense-oriented teams, and again none of those games featured the Patriots. If we simply sample the three Super Bowl appearances by the Patriots in the past ten years, the final score should be around 25-22 in favor of the Patriots. The bottom line is, the Super Bowl is rarely the high-scoring blowout that Vegas is predicting in this game.

Everybody knows the Patriots are 18-0, and some are already assuming that 19-0 is inevitable, which is pretty humorous considering these teams played a 38-35 game just one month ago where the Giants led the game well into the second half. To further illustrate why the expectation of a Patriot’s blowout may be a fallacy, let me dispel some myths and present some interesting points.

Myth: Most of the talking heads have exclaimed that the two week span between the divisional championships and the Super Bowl is a big advantage for genius-coach Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots.
Truth: The extra week before the Super Bowl almost always favors the underdog, especially when they are playing the New England Patriots.

In 2003, the 17-2 Patriots were huge favorites against the Carolina Panthers, who used the two weeks of preparation to prepare for and play the Patriots to a draw after 60 minutes of football, with Adam Vinatieri kicking the winning 41-yard FG with four seconds left to play. The Patriots won 32-29. Again in 2004, the 17-2 Patriots were huge favorites against the Philadelphia Eagles, who used the two weeks of preparation to get WR Terrell Owens healthy enough to play and were tied with the Patriots after three quarters before falling 24-21.

We have seen the underdog phenomenon repeatedly in recent years, both in the NFL and college football. These football players are elite athletes with big egos, and you can only tell a proud man so many times the he is going to get his butt kicked when the time comes without that man elevating his game to meet the challenge. The Giants know they are capable of beating the Patriots, as they just proved it a few weeks ago. Constant insistence that they are overmatched will only make them more focused. Combine the underdog psychology with the fact that the Giants are nursing some injuries and the Patriots have the most complex offense in the league to prepare for, and you realize that the extra week can only benefit the Giants.

People forget very quickly that the Patriots had two weeks to prepare for the Jacksonville Jaguars in these playoffs, and the Jaguars looked very comfortable both on offense and defense against the Patriots, on the road. Many so-called experts have blasted Jacksonville for their defensive game plan, but that conservative scheme held the Patriots to 31 points despite the fact that New England’s second score was the direct result of a David Garrard fumble deep in his own territory. Jacksonville was also playing without their best defensive lineman (DT Marcus Stroud) and their best linebacker (MLB Mike Peterson). If the Patriots had scored only 31 points against the Giants in Week 17 they would no longer be undefeated, and do not forget that the Patriots scored 35 points in last year’s AFC Championship game and lost. If the Giants hold the Patriots to 31 points this Sunday, they have an excellent chance of winning.

Myth: You cannot successfully blitz Tom Brady.
Truth: The Philadelphia Eagles did just that in Week 12 at Gillette Stadium, the Baltimore Ravens did so the following week on Monday Night Football (MNF), and the New York Jets did the same thing to Brady in Week 15. The juggernaut Patriots offense generated only 24 points at home against the Eagles, 13 points at home against the Jets, and 27 points against the hapless Ravens. Two of those games began with the Patriots returning an interception for a defensive touchdown. In those three games, Tom Brady was 66-119 passing (55.5%) for 777 yards with only three TDs, two INTs, and was sacked seven times. Even more interesting was that in those three games, Brady was outplayed by three backup QBs in the much-maligned A.J. Feeley, Kyle Boller and Chad Pennington, who were a combined 67-103 passing (65%) for 741 yards, five TDs and four INTs, putting the argument that weather was the biggest factor to bed.

The truth is that in the second half of the season, multiple teams have shown that the Patriot offense can be slowed by rushing only four and dropping seven out of the Cover-2 defense (IND, JAX) or with heavy blitzing (BAL, NYJ, PHI). In the first meeting between the Giants and Patriots, the Giants had a short week of preparation, and defensively they seemed to want to blitz but were concerned whether they could do so successfully. Considering that Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is a disciple of Philadelphia’s Jim Johnson, and New York is both healthier and more confident in their secondary than they were several weeks ago, I expect the Giant defense to be more aggressive this time around. They most likely will send more blitzes, while staying in a rather conservative base defense that will resemble the approach that Jacksonville took against the Patriots. I think the Giants will commit to stopping the run on first down with a basic, two-deep safety alignment, and then adjust their level of aggression based on the outcome of those first down plays. In other words, the Giants will play what is often referred to as a bend-but-do-not-break defense.

Myth: The league has not yet caught up to the spread offense run by teams such as the Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots.
Truth: The league catches up to everybody and everything. The Patriots have played four teams twice, only one with a winning record, and only once have they scored as many points in the second meeting or won by as large a margin. After beating the Jets 38-14 on the road in Week 1, they escaped 20-10 at Gillette in Week 15. After crushing the Dolphins 49-28 on the road in Week 7, a significantly more depleted Dolphins team was a nuisance and held the Patriots to 28 points in Week 16. In Week 2, the Patriots crushed the Chargers 38-14 at Gillette Stadium. Then in the playoffs against the same team (more depleted) in the same place, the Patriots squeaked out a 21-12 victory. Only the Buffalo Bills failed the close the gap significantly the second time they saw that Patriot offense.

The New York Giants are also a great example how it takes less than one season for a defenses to catch up to new offensive schemes. In Week 1, the New York Giants gave up 45 points at Dallas in a loss, then cut the Cowboys output to 31 points in Week 10, and finally went back to Dallas in the playoffs and held them to 17 points. In Week 2 the Giants were blown out at home by the Green Bay Packers, 35-13, then traveled to Lambeau Field in the playoffs and held that same outfit to twenty points in an overtime win.

So if we take all that information, we find that three out of four teams that faced the Patriots a second time cut New England’s offensive productivity by at least 17 points, and that in three rematches against teams that defeated them earlier in the season, the Giants cut the output of those teams’ spread offense by at least two touchdowns each time. If this significant trend continues it suggests that the Patriots will only score 24 points against the Giants in the Super Bowl. Maybe Plaxico Burress’ prediction of a 23-17 Giants victory has some rational backing, although the Patriots scoring only 17 points on a fast turf seems a little extreme to me. The Giants have scored an average of 23 PPG in the playoffs, so maybe that is where Burress is getting his numbers.

So Plaxico Burress had made his prediction, so let me make mine. As I have mentioned, I think the extra week will work in favor of the Giants, while the conditions in Arizona really should benefit both teams, as it will make the Giant pass rushers look faster just as it will the Patriot receivers. We all know Eli Manning plays much better in the warm weather, what QB doesn’t, and the fast turf should create some opportunities in the return game, where I feel the Giants are better equipped to take advantage.

The bottom line here is that these teams played a closely contested game just one month ago, and since that time I feel the Giants have improved as a team. The Giants have also played three games on the road against better defenses than they will see in the New England Patriots. Two of those games came in difficult conditions. So I guess my whole point is that if the Giants offense could move the ball on the road, in a hostile environment, in poor field conditions, you can be sure that they will move the ball against the Patriots. Of course, moving the ball will not be enough. Holding onto the ball for long, sustained drives that result in at least three points is the key to the Giants winning the game. If New York makes five trips to the red zone and comes out with three TDs and two FGs, those 27-points just might be enough against a Patriots offense that only gets limited touches.

Vegas Prediction: 33-20 Patriots
Burress Prediction: 23-17 Giants
Super Bowl Trend: 25-22 Patriots
Playoff Trend: 22-19 Patriots
Rematch Trend: 31-24 Giants
My Prediction: 28-27 Giants

NFL Divisional Wrap-Up

After going two out of four (50%) ATS and four out of four on the O/U (100%), it was a pretty successful weekend picking against Vegas. As for the playoff picture, well, that is another story. If anybody is telling you that they picked a final four of New England, San Diego, Green Bay and New York then you should not trust them any further than you can throw them.

The story with all four games this weekend was adjustments and momentum at halftime. The teams that had the halftime momentum and made second-half adjustments won the game. Of the four winners this weekend, two on the road, only one led at the half. Let’s start with the big upsets and work our way down the list.

New York Giants 21, Dallas Cowboys 17
This game was tied 14 apiece at halftime. Cowboys RB Marion Barber was running around and over the Giants defense while their QB Tony Romo stood untouched in the pocket one dropback after another. Giants QB Eli Manning led a surgical two-minute drive at the end of the first half to tie the game, and the Giants defense took over from there, both shutting down the Cowboys on the ground and creating a relentless pass rush on Romo. As many people have noted, the Giants front four was so menacing that Cowboy TE Jason Whitten was stuck in pass protection for much of their last-gasp drive that ended in an interception.

This game also put Tony Romo under the spotlight, and he folded like a cheap lawn chair. For most of the second half he only looked for WR Terrell Owens or Whitten, and the Giants secondary keyed in on his tendencies. Romo failed to ground the ball and took sacks when out of the pocket, yet grounded the ball when he was inside the pocket. Romo managed the clock poorly in the second half, and spent most of his time yelling at his offensive line, the referees, or the Dallas coaching staff. Last year in Seattle, Romo imploded on a simple hold for a chipshot field goal. This year, his implosion culminated over 30 minutes of football in the second half of this game.

San Diego Chargers 28, Indianapolis Colts 24
Before a QB imploded down in Dallas, the nation watched as an entire organization imploded in the RCA Dome. The entire Indianapolis Colts organization imploded against the San Diego Chargers. Let’s start with the coaching staff. I love what Tony Dungy was able to do with this team and how he held them together through injuries amidst stiff competition, but he and his staff really blew it on Sunday. The Colts made zero adjustments the entire game, on offense or defense, letting the Chargers execute their game plan to perfection regardless of whether Philip Rivers, LaDainian Tomlinson, Michael Turner or Billy Volek was on the field. Indianapolis stayed with a very conservative approach on both sides of the ball, and their play calling for most of the game was horrific, especially in the red zone.

Colts QB Peyton Manning may have thrown for 402 yards in this game, but he did not play well. He did not complete a clutch throw the entire game, nor did his receivers give him much help. He threw a red zone INT and he threw another pick that should have been a touchdown for San Diego if not for a phantom holding call. Regardless, that INT by Antonio Cromartie changed the entire game. Finally, Manning did not play nearly as well in the second half when the Chargers started getting pressure, and we cannot forget that Manning plays a bigger role than most QBs in the play calling, which was atrocious for the Colts today.

Last but not least, you have to give props to the entire Colts training staff. After weeks of being rumored at being ready to play “if this were a playoff game”, Colts WR Marvin Harrision did play today in a playoff game. Harrison also looked like he could barely run, cut or hold the football. Was I the only guy who noticed how frail Marvin looked out there? Whoever has watched his progress over the past several weeks and thought he should be included in the game planning on offense should be fired immediately.

The Colts were healthy, at home, with little pressure and no excuses. Every unit and facet of their team performed poorly, with the exception of their special teams. This was an incredible win for the San Diego Chargers. It will be interesting to see if QB Philip Rivers, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, FB Lorenzo Neal and TE Antonio Gates can get healthy enough during the week to be effective against the Patriots.

Green Bay Packers 42, Seattle Seahawks 20
Down 14-0 after five minutes courtesy of two fumbles by RB Ryan Grant, the Packers looked like their playoff run was going to be cold and short. QB Brett Favre and the Green Bay offense proceeded to score touchdowns on their next six possessions, which quickly turned this game into a laugher. The Seahawks are not the same team on the road, and despite the gift handicap they were unable to match the Packers speed and energy. So much was made of their loss to Dallas and homefield advantage in the NFC, and this young Packer team must feel really good about playing in front of their home fans for the right to play in the Super Bowl. This squad also has to be a pretty confident bunch after trailing 14-0 and then launching a furious comeback as the weather got worse.

New England Patriots 31, Jacksonville Jaguars 20
This game was tied 14 apiece at halftime and basically comes down to that one extra offensive possession for the Patriots in the first half that put them up 14-7 after they had forced Jaguars QB David Garrard to fumble in his own territory. If you had told the Jaguars before the game that they would have more passing yards than New England and hold the Patriots to 31 points, they would have felt pretty good about their chances. In order to beat the Patriots you have to play mistake-free football to match New England’s level of execution, as well as make the necessary adjustments. Jacksonville did not do either, turning the ball over twice, failing to apply more pressure on QB Tom Brady in the second half, and Jaguars WR Dennis Northcutt had several costly drops.

Preview: San Diego Chargers @ Indianapolis Colts

The line on this game has the Indianapolis Colts favored by 9 points over the San Diego Chargers with an O/U of 45.5 – the spread has widened and the O/U has decreased, meaning people in Vegas are questioning whether the Chargers can score twenty points without TE Antonio Gates. I question that as well.

The injury report is nearly empty for the Colts, with only backup TE Ben Utecht making the list with a shoulder injury, and even he is expected to suit up and be available for Tony Dungy and the Colts. For the Chargers, the availability of TE Antonio Gates and FB Lorenzo Neal is fully in doubt, and neither will be close to full-strength. Do you really think Gates is going to be effective on astroturf with that dislocated toe that requires surgery?

The Colts enter this game healthy, motivated, and ready to roll over a Charger team that beat them in the rainy muck during the regular season. It is rare for the defending Super Bowl champions to have motivation and revenge on their side, but the Colts will have both against San Diego and New England. As we have said earlier, both the Chargers and Patriots have already beaten the champs this season, and it is going to be awfully tough to beat the Colts for a second time now that they are healthy. Indianapolis also has some extra motivation as indications are strong that Tony Dungy will retire at the end of the season.

QB Mistake Factor: Advantage Indianapolis. Peyton Manning averages 14.71 pass attempts per INT/SACK and those numbers look a lot worse than they should be due to injuries suffered by TE Dallas Clark, WR Marvin Harrison and key members of the offensive line. Those guys should be healthy and the problems that resulted from their injuries should disappear. The pressure in this game is clearly on Philip Rivers, and he has not handled it well in the past. Chargers coach Norv Turner is also under quite a bit of pressure to show he can take this team further than Marty Schottenheimer, meaning the Chargers may take some risks and get burned in this game.

QB Harassment Factor: Advantage San Diego. The Chargers forced Peyton Manning into 6 INTs during their first meeting, and although I do not expect them to duplicate that effort, they are capable of getting to Manning both in the backfield and the secondary. The Colts pass rush is depleted without Dwight Freeney, but their speed out of the Tampa-2 should force Philip Rivers into a few turnovers.

Running Game Factor: PUSH. The Chargers have the best running back in the game, LaDainian Tomlinson, and he will get some yards against the Colts run defense. However, the Colts defense is much better against the run than the numbers suggest, mainly because the Colts have played six games against the top five running teams in the AFC. Colts RB Joseph Addai should get his fair share of yardage against a Charger defense that is susceptible to the run as well.

Third Down Conversion: Advantage Indianapolis. The Colts are the class of the league in this category, converting almost half of their third-down opportunities. The Chargers are not nearly as good in this area, converting only 39.3% of the time.

Bottom Line: Many people are touting the Chargers in this game, which I think is a joke. I like the Colts in this game and big. The Colts have a better QB, more weapons on offense, better coaching, and a better defense. I think the only shot the Chargers have is to create some scoring opportunities with their specials teams play, which is stellar. The last time these two teams met, the Chargers beat the Colts 23-21 in San Diego, and that game is all the evidence I need to predict a huge win for the Colts. In that game, the Colts were missing WR Anthony Gonzalez, TE Dallas Clark and WR Marvin Harrison on offense, yet they outgained the Chargers almost 2:1. Colts QB Peyton Manning threw 6 INTs, yet the Colts possessed the ball for over 60% of the game. Finally, Adam Vinatieri missed both of his FG attempts, including a chip shot in the closing seconds which, despite everything that was going against the Colts, would have surely won them the game. For the first time all season, Peyton Manning will have his full complement of offensive weapons, and they will reassemble with him behind an offensive line that is finally 100% healthy. That is some bad news for Charger fans. Last but not least, many “experts” will be touting the Chargers to win this game, and some people are already discussing whether the Chargers can beat the Patriots. The last time a healthy, rested and motivated Super Bowl champion was disrespected at home, I doubt it worked out too well for their opponent. Colts leave little doubt here and win big.

Take the Colts to cover as well as the over. Colts roll at home, 33-20.

Preview: Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots

Las Vegas is expecting a blowout in this game, and it is easy to understand why. If Jacksonville gets down early, the game will likely get out of hand. New England is now a 13.5-point favorite and the O/U is all the way up to 50, which I still see as rather conservative.

The Jaguars will play better this weekend than they did against Pittsburgh, you can be sure. The weather will be nicer, the crowd will not be as loud, the Patriots defense is far less stout against the run, and all of the playoff pressure will be squarely on the shoulder pads of the Patriots. If the Jaguars spend this week concentrating on pass defense, special teams and game management, they should be just fine at Gillette. Remember, the Jaguars were in New England in the 2005 NFL Playoffs as the #5 seed, and it was a 7-3 contest at halftime until the Patriots capitalized on some Byron Leftwich mistakes and pulled away in the second half. Last year, the Patriots needed all sixty minutes to defeat the Jaguars on the road, 24-21.

On the injury front, LB Mike Peterson is out again for the Jaguars while DT John Henderson is reportedly ready to play at full-strength. Either way, the left side of the Jaguars defensive front is recovering from injury (Henderson) just like the right side of the Patriots offensive line (RG Stephen Neal, LT Nick Kaczur) is battling injuries as well. I question how healthy Henderson is in addition to whether Kaczur and Neal will actually play, as both have been limited in practice this week. The answers to those questions could be pivotal, as Jacksonville will need its front seven to dominate the offensive front of New England if they are to have any chance of slowing QB Tom Brady and the Patriots passing game.

QB Mistake Factor: Advantage New England. Tom Brady averages an astounding 19.93 pass attempts per INT/SACK. David Garrard has been excellent, but he cannot even approach those numbers at 12.03. Other than his gutsy run on fourth-down against Pittsburgh, Garrard played very poorly against the Steelers. Another performance like that and the Jaguars will get blown out. The Patriots have a better QB and better pass protection, so let’s get past this one quickly. The Jaguars do not need Garrard to throw for 300 yards, but they do need him to convert on all manageable third-downs in order to keep drives going. Completion percentage will be much more important for Garrard than total yards. Jacksonville needs that clock to roll while they are on offense. Long drives for the Jaguars is the kryptonite for both the Patriots defense and offense.

QB Harassment Factor: Advantage New England. The Patriots recorded an AFC-best 47 sacks and picked off the opposing QB 19 times this season. Those numbers are inflated by the fact that the Patriot defense was always playing with a big lead, and when they were not, the Patriots defense gave up quite a few yards and points. Do not let the numbers fool you, the Jaguars have an excellent defense that is as good or better than New England’s, and they will be very physical with the Patriots. If the Jacksonville secondary can avoid giving up big plays, this is going to be a game. In five road games against playoff-bound teams this season, Jacksonville has recorded 18 sacks and 9 interceptions, including a very impressive game against Tampa Bay when they forced the uber-efficient Jeff Garcia into 3 INTs.

Running Game: Advantage Jacksonville. Jacksonville is going to run the ball very effectively against the Patriots. Believe it. The Patriots have one of the worst run defenses in the entire league, and Jacksonville has the second-best rushing attack in the NFL. I expect Jacksonville to easily exceed their season average of 150 yards on the ground while the Jaguar defense will hold New England to well under 100 yards rushing. Big advantage here for Jacksonville, especially if Henderson is fully healthy.

Third Down Conversion: Advantage New England. The Patriots convert 48.2% on third down while Jacksonville is still very respectable at 45.7%.

Bottom Line: Now that we know the weather conditions are expected to be reasonably good, the predictions must be skewed to the advantage of the Patriots and the offensive side of the ball. Jacksonville should be able to possess the ball for the majority of the game behind their running game and good conversion rate on third down, which will limit the number of opportunities for the Patriot offense. Given those opportunities though, the Patriot offense should be able to exact points on nearly every possession. In the end, this game comes down to which Jacksonville team shows up. The Jaguars team from last week is going to get blown out. The Jaguars team that has shown up most of the season is going to play the Patriots aggressively and down to the wire.

Take Jacksonville with the points as well as the over. New England wins a shootout, 37-30.

Preview: Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers

Since my playoff predictions were predicated on Washington beating Seattle, the one game we did not choose correctly here on the blog, I have to revamp the analysis of the divisional games in the NFC. AFC predictions remain accurate and unchanged.

The spread in this game continues to narrow while the O/U has risen all the way to 43 from 40 earlier in the week. The trends are probably a reflection of the reasonably nice weather predicted in Green Bay this weekend, which helps the Seahawks and their pass-happy offense.

On the injury front, the Packers could be missing CB Charles Woodson and WR Greg Jennings. Both missed practice time this week. The Seahawks could be missing WR D.J. Hackett, who aggravated the sprained right ankle that he has dealt with for most of the season at practice on Wednesday. However, fellow WR Deion Branch should suit up in his place for Seattle.

QB Mistake Factor: Advantage Green Bay. Brett Favre makes his fair share of mistakes but has been playing within the system all season and taking what the defense gives him. Brett Favre averages an astounding 17.8 pass attempts per INT/SACK versus 12.50 for Matt Hasselbeck, not to mention that Hasselbeck has some unexercised demons at Lambeau Field.

QB Harassment Factor: Advantage Seattle. The Seattle pass rush was incredible against Washington and the Seahawks secondary returned two INTs for touchdowns. However, the Packers offensive line is excellent in pass protection and Seattle will not have the crowd advantage to help them with that first step. The Green Bay defense should force a few mistakes against the Seahawks, but they are nowhere near as menacing on defense as the Giants. In the end, I expect both QBs to be protected reasonably well and therefore each should be somewhat comfortable throwing the ball.

Running Game Factor: Advantage Green Bay. Forget what you kept hearing early in the season; the Packers have a running game with RB Ryan Grant. They will be able to spread the Seattle defense out much more than Washington could with a more dangerous QB and better receivers, meaning yards will be available all day for Grant running behind that offensive line. I see no evidence supporting the notion that Seattle will be able to run the ball consistently in this game.

Third Down Conversion: Advantage Green Bay. The Packers have an excellent 42.6% conversion rate, much better than 35% for the Seahawks.

Bottom Line: Green Bay is at home with a better QB and running game. Seattle does not play well on the road, and I do not think Seattle will be able to move the ball consistently or efficiently against Green Bay. You can bet the Packers saw what the Seattle pass rush did to Todd Collins and the Redskins, so you can be sure they will have their protections set for this game, and Todd Collins is a far cry from Brett Favre. The Packers offensive line is excellent at protecting Favre, who also excels at getting the ball away quickly. I think that will be the difference in this game, as Seattle will struggle to defend the multiple spread looks they will see from the Packers. The only two offenses that Seattle has faced this season running similar wide open styles, New Orleans and Cleveland, have both put up huge numbers and won the game. I actually have an inclination to predict a blowout here, but this is a young Packers team that may have some playoff jitters, Favre may get excited and force some bad throws, and these teams have a history of playing close games. In the end I see Green Ball controlling the ball as well as the clock to win a close game.

Take the Seattle Seahawks with the points as well as the over. Green Bay wins at home, 27-20.

Preview: New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys

Since my playoff predictions were predicated on Washington beating Seattle, the one game we did not choose correctly here on the blog, I have to revamp the analysis of the divisional games in the NFC. AFC predictions remain accurate and unchanged.

Heading into Friday night, the New York Giants are 7.5-point underdogs and the O/U is 46.5, down from 47 a few days ago. On the injury front, the Giants will probably be missing CB Sam Madison and possibly C Shaun O’Hara, while the Cowboys should be getting WRs Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn back, although both will almost certainly be limited.

Let’s take a look into these two teams, their strengths and weaknesses, and pick a winner.

QB Mistake Factor: Advantage Dallas. Eli Manning has played very well the last several weeks, but eventually the law of averages and his low 11.26 pass attempts per INT/SACK should catch up with him. Tony Romo makes his share of mistakes and his ratio is not much better at 12.09, but unlike many pundits out there I think Tony Romo is going to put the Jessica Simpson getaway to bed with a very solid game.

QB Harassment Factor: Advantage New York. Just ask Jeff Garcia; The Giants harass opposing QBs as well as any team in the league, and without Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn at full-strength, I wonder just how much the Cowboys can keep the defense on their heels with the threat of a big play. The Cowboys get after the QB quite well themselves and should get to Eli Manning. The Dallas secondary makes quite a few plays in the average game and if they turn up the pressure on Manning they should force him into some mistakes. The Giants defense really just has to keep receivers in front of them and be patient with Tony Romo to see if they can help him beat himself by forcing the ball into Owens.

Running Game Factor: Advantage New York. The Cowboys do not run the ball as well as they should be able to, probably due to a lack of commitment on their end. I expect that the Cowboys will try and establish the run early in this game to keep the New York pass rush honest. The Giants are committed to running the ball with no less than three effective running backs, beginning with the physical Brandon Jacobs.

Third Down Conversion: PUSH. The Cowboys convert 42.2% on third down versus 41.6% on third down for the Giants.

Bottom Line: The New York Giants have played very well as of late, but I think Dallas has too much talent at home to lose this game despite the fact that they will be trying to reinvent themselves on offense. I expect both Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn to be on the field, which will put clouds of doubt in the Giants game plan. I also think the Cowboys will commit to the run early and often as a way to keep the Giants from loading up on the pass and harassing their franchise QB as well as their hobbling WRs. These two teams are playing each other for the third time and both have multiple injuries on offense, meaning I expect each team to spend the majority of the game feeling the other team out and trying to run the ball consistently. In the end, I expect a slow, ball-control death for the New York Giants courtesy of Cowboy RBs Julius Jones and Marion Barber in addition to TE Jason Whitten. This game will be close and low-scoring, and the Giants will have every opportunity to win until the very end.

Take the New York Giants with the points and the under. Cowboys win at home, 24-20.

BCS Game Recap

Usually on the blog we just pick the winners, but for this game I was so confident in my analysis that I gave you the ATS and O/U winner by picking LSU to win 34-21. The final score of the game was LSU 38, OSU 24. You cannot do much better than that folks. Most of you probably listened to the consensus pick by the “experts”, which was Ohio State to win a close game. Do yourself a favor and stop listening to the talking heads and tune into the blog more often to get informed.

Ohio State coaches, fans and players really have nothing to be ashamed of after tonight’s game. Unlike the debacle against Florida in this spot last year, Ohio State came out motivated, prepared, and gave maximum effort for the full sixty minutes. The Buckeyes hit LSU with an early uppercut worthy of Muhammad Ali, taking a seemingly instant 10-0 lead. The Tigers responded by scoring 31 unanswered points and putting the game on ice. As we predicted, even though LSU went uber-conservative with their second-half play calling, they simply had too much depth and too many weapons for Ohio State. They forced Buckeye QB Todd Boeckman to play from behind and carry OSU with his arm, and just like what was evident in their loss against Illinois, Boeckman is simply not up to that challenge at this point.

This Ohio State team was better and more complete than the team that took the field last year, but there was still a pretty significant talent gap between the two teams. LSU won the battle of the trenches on both sides of the ball. Matt Flynn was the better of the two quarterbacks. The LSU secondary won the battle against the OSU receivers. Eight different LSU players caught passes from Flynn. Finally, LSU blocked a field goal and their kick coverage was excellent. RB Chris Wells was really the only advantage that Ohio State had on the field, and without his 65-yard TD run to begin the game, the Buckeyes might have been in for an even longer evening.

Stayed tuned to the blog for my college football preseason top ten for 2008 as well as my final ATS and O/U picks for the divisional games in the NFL this weekend after the injury reports come out. Primarily what I am looking for is whether DT John Henderson and LB Mike Peterson will play for Jacksonville (and at what level of health), as well as whether TE Antonio Gates will suit up for San Diego and WR Marvin Harrison for Indianapolis. I do not expect Dallas, Green Bay, New England or Seattle to have any significant injuries pop up, and the entire New York Giants team is nursing injuries so we will just have to see what they have left in the tank. I do not expect WR Terrell Owens to play for Dallas.

BCS National Championship Prediction

As of right now LSU is a 3.5-point favorite over Ohio State with the O/U being 47.5, which seems pretty low to me seeing that three out of the four BCS games have smashed that number on the over and Kansas/Virginia Tech came in at 45 despite being a defensive struggle.

Ohio State is getting a ton of love right now from all of the “experts” because they are motivated from last year’s blowout loss to Florida. I agree that will keep the Buckeyes competitive early, but eventually the superior depth, talent and athleticism of LSU will take over, especially with the crowd advantage feeding them energy throughout the game.

Ohio State has only faced two QBs all year that have the athleticism and mobility of LSU’s Matt Flynn, and the Buckeye defense struggled with both. On the other side, LSU is going to savor the opportunity to go at a QB that is stationary in the pocket like Todd Boeckman. I think Todd Boeckman is a perfect game manager for Ohio State, I just do not think that he can win the game for the Buckeyes if they face an early deficit. When Illinois went up early on Ohio State earlier in the season, Boeckman collapsed and threw three INTs while being sacked twice by an Illini defense that got run off the field by USC. If Troy Smith was rattled by an fast SEC defense in this game last year, you can bet that LSU will get to Boeckman.

The one thing that is being overlooked by the “experts” is the health of LSU, who are at full strength for the first time since September. All this game tape that the “experts” are saying shows how Ohio State can exploit the LSU defense and contain LSU on offense also shows the Tigers missing key personnel left and right. Early Doucet, Glenn Dorsey and Matt Flynn are all good to go along with many other cogs in the machine, and I do not think that the Buckeyes will have been able to game plan for an LSU team at full strength, and I believe Ohio State will be taken aback by all of the weapons the Tigers have on offense. Many “experts” are pointing to Michigan’s win over Florida as an indictment of LSU. I view the situation completely different. I think the Michigan performance proves just how much being healthy can change the complexion of a team, even this late in the season.

Finally, many “experts” are giving Ohio State an edge in this game because of their coach Jim Tressel and his fabulous track record. Just remember that most of Tressel’s legacy comes from his performance against perennially under-coached teams (Michigan) or drastically over-matched teams (Notre Dame). Oklahoma’s Bob Stoops should demonstrate how quickly the “genius” tag can be ripped away from a college coach.

My pick in this game is the LSU Tigers on the over to beat the spread, 34-21. I think LSU is healthy, deep, more talented and in a comfort zone, yet they have as much to prove as Ohio State. For LSU, the Les Miles era cannot truly begin unless they win this game, and if they do not perform well many will be questioning the legitimacy of their BCS championship as a two-loss team. I think Ohio State may have stressed so much over last years loss to Florida that they may be placing unnecessary pressure on themselves, something that the underdog usually does not have to deal with.

LSU dominates the second half and wins 34-21.

Wild Card Update

After going an impressive 3-1 in our predictions here on the blog, let’s recap Wild Card weekend and preview the divisional round.

Seattle 35, Washington 14
This is the one game that we did not hit on here at the blog, and the final score is in no way indicative of how close this game, and these two teams, were. Washington was sleep-walking until the 4Q, when they came from behind to take a 14-13 lead. After getting the ball back, Washington had the opportunity to register a 17-13 lead, but Redskins kicker Shaun Suisham missed a gimme from 30-yards. Instead of having the Redskins having clear momentum, that miss instantly swung the pendulum back to the Seahawks, who promptly marched down the field for a touchdown and 2-pt conversion. Redskins QB Todd Collins was then forced to win the game with his arm in poor field conditions, and the result was two interceptions thrown for Seattle touchdowns and the misleading score you see above.

Jacksonville 31, Pittsburgh 29
This was the most competitive game of the weekend and went right down to the wire. The Jaguars played very poorly, especially on offense, and still got a playoff road win. The Steelers, for their part, played very well given all of their injuries. The crowd provided the Steelers with plenty of energy, and their defense really did respond with an impassioned performance. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh fans, QB Ben Roethlisberger did not play well, and Pittsburgh was unable to capitalize fully when Jacksonville tried to give the game away after leading 28-10 late in the third quarter. Josh Scobee kicked a 25-yard field goal with under a minute to play to seal the victory for the Jaguars. This game was a near mirror-image of their meeting in December, with the main difference being the very poor performance of Jaguars QB David Garrard.

New York 24, Tampa Bay 14
For the first ten minutes of this game it appeared that the Giants were going to get blown off the field, but then I feel their superior talent gradually overcame the Buccaneers preparation. We all know Jon Gruden got this team into the playoffs with smoke and mirrors, and the Bucs were rarely tested in the NFC South. The Giants came in, actually looked pretty tired and disjointed at the beginning and end of this game, but during the middle portion simply dominated QB Jeff Garcia and the Buccaneers on both sides of the ball. Giants QB Eli Manning managed the game well and avoided the big mistake. Meanwhile, Garcia threw two very costly interceptions in Giants territory.

San Diego 17, Tennessee 6
I know the “experts” are talking about how awesome the Chargers are, but can we take a moment to appreciate just how good the AFC South is? Three teams from that division made the playoffs with at least ten wins, and two were on the road this weekend in tough spots. While the Jaguars beat the Steelers at Heinz Field for the second time in less than a month (almost unthinkable), the Titans gave the Chargers a real scare. The Titans, with numerous key players out and several starters nursing obvious injuries, led this game at halftime, on the road, 6-0. Considering that the Titans fumbled in the red zone and kicker Rob Bironas missed a FG which for him is money in the bank, I would not be so quick to crown these San Diego Chargers as a legitimate contender. Actually, this game makes me even more confident that the Colts are going to make short work of the Chargers next weekend.

So what does next weekend have in store for us? Let’s start in the AFC.

(5) Jacksonville Jaguars @ (1) New England Patriots
My predictions for this game remain the same, that Jacksonville will take New England down to the wire but will fall short in the end. The Jaguars will play better next weekend, you can be sure. The weather will be nicer, the crowd will not be as loud, the Patriots defense is far less stout against the run, and all of the playoff pressure will be squarely on the shoulder pads of the Patriots. If the Jaguars spend this week concentrating on pass defense, special teams and game management, they should be just fine at Gillette. Remember, the Jaguars were in New England in the 2005 NFL Playoffs as the #5 seed, and it was a 7-3 contest at halftime until the Patriots capitalized on some Byron Leftwich mistakes and pulled away in the second half. The Patriots continue their recent trend and win a close game after trailing early.

(3) San Diego Chargers @ (2) Indianapolis Colts
The last time these two teams met, the Chargers beat the Colts 23-21 in San Diego, and that game is all the evidence I need to predict a huge win for the Colts. In that game, the Colts were missing WR Anthony Gonzalez, TE Dallas Clark and WR Marvin Harrison on offense, yet they outgained the Chargers almost 2:1. Colts QB Peyton Manning threw 6 INTs, yet the Colts possessed the ball for over 60% of the game. Finally, Adam Vinatieri missed both of his FG attempts, including a chip shot in the closing seconds which, despite everything that was going against the Colts, would have surely won them the game. For the first time all season, Peyton Manning will have his full complement of offensive weapons, and they will reassemble with him behind an offensive line that is finally 100% healthy. That is some bad news for Charger fans. Last but not least, many “experts” will be touting the Chargers to win this game, and some people are already discussing whether the Chargers can beat the Patriots. The last time a healthy, rested and motivated Super Bowl champion was disrespected at home, I doubt it worked out too well for their opponent. Colts leave little doubt here and win big.

The NFC is where the upset took place, so let’s see how that impacts our predictions (it does not).

(5) New York Giants @ (1) Dallas Cowboys
I know it is incredibly difficult for anybody to beat a good football team three times in one season, but that is exactly what the Dallas Cowboys are going to do. The New York Giants have put together their best football, in my opinion, their last three games. The Cowboys have put together some of their worst performances their last three games. As a result, the Giants are going to keep this game close, but if WR Terry Glenn plays for the Cowboys, QB Tony Romo will have too many options (even without Terrell Owens) for that Giant secondary to defend. I know the Giant defense looked great in the secondary against Tampa Bay, but they were facing an injured Joey Galloway and a bunch of bums. The Cowboys have too many weapons, and they will wear down a Giants defense that looked cooked at the end against Tampa Bay. I think this is the game where all of the fatigue and injuries show for the Giants. My gut feeling is that Terrell Owens will play, but will fill more of a decoy role than anything else, as the Cowboys will look to feature Glenn. The Cowboys know that if he is healthy and regains his 2006 form, that Terry Glenn takes this offense to a whole new level. Cowboys win by a touchdown.

(3) Seattle Seahawks @ (2) Green Bay Packers
I had the Washington Redskins advancing to this game and losing, and I see a similar fate for the Seahawks. Seattle does not play well on the road, and I do not think Seattle will be able to move the ball at all in the air against Green Bay. You can bet the Packers saw what the Seattle pass rush did to Todd Collins and the Redskins, so you can be sure they will have their protections set for this game, and Todd Collins is a far cry from Brett Favre. The Packers offensive line is excellent at protecting Favre, who also excels at getting the ball away quickly. I think that will be the difference in this game, as Seattle will struggle to defend the multiple spread looks they will see from the Packers. The only two offenses that Seattle has faced this season running similar wide open styles, New Orleans and Cleveland, have both put up huge numbers and won the game. The Packers will do the same and win by ten points.

NFL Playoff Predictions: AFC

Wild Card Weekend

(3) San Diego Chargers versus (6) Tennessee Titans

The San Diego Chargers just have too much talent and will control too many phases of this game to lose at home to an injury-plagued Titans team. When comparing two teams to pick playoff winners, I basically look at four factors:
(a) QB Mistake Factor: How many pass attempts on offense versus interceptions thrown or sacks taken.
(b) QB Harassment Factor: How many times on defense does the team intercept or sack the opposing QB.
(c) Running Game Factor: How the rush offenses and defenses of the two teams match up.
(d) Third Down Conversion: How well each respective offense manages to stay on the field.

QB Mistake Factor: Advantage San Diego. Philip Rivers averages 12.43 pass attempts per INT/SACK versus only 9.10 for Vince Young. The speed of the Charger defense combined with the multiple looks they will give Young out of their 3-4 scheme will keep the Titan offense confused for most of the game.
QB Harassment Factor: Advantage San Diego. The Chargers create as much havoc on defense as any team in the league, with 42 sacks and 30 interceptions. The Titans are very respectable at 40 sacks and 22 interceptions, but Vince Young is much more mistake prone than Philip Rivers.
Running Game: PUSH. This would be an advantage for the Titans if LenDale White was going to play, but that looks doubtful. The Titans have a ferocious front seven which should stymie any inside running game for the Chargers, and San Diego will crowd the line of scrimmage and dare Vince Young to beat them with his arm.
Third Down Conversion: Advantage Tennessee. The Titans convert 41.0% of the time on third down against 39.3% for the Chargers. Again, the Titans will be at a disadvantage in third-and-short situations without White.

Bottom Line: The weather is supposed to be pretty poor for this game and there is some bad blood from the previous meeting between these two teams, so I expect a very close game. The Titans are battle tested, extremely well coached, and should keep this game close with their defense, but I think San Diego has too much talent and will eventually wear down the Titans in a physical game. I do not think the Titans will win this game, but I do think they may take out a few Chargers in defeat. I would be surprised if QB Philip Rivers finishes this game with that bum knee, as the Titans will be after him from the opening whistle.

(4) Pittsburgh Steelers versus (5) Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars won the regular season meeting between these two teams at Heinz Field, and I see absolutely no evidence that the result will be different this time around. The Steelers are banged-up and their confidence is shaken, while the Jaguars appear rested and motivated for a run at the New England Patriots.

QB Mistake Factor: Advantage Jacksonville. The Steelers give up a ton of sacks, including five to the Jaguars the last time these teams met. That situation should get worse as the Steelers are missing several offensive linemen and RB Willie Parker is not there to keep the Jaguars honest on play action passes. David Garrard goes down more than you would like to see from a power running team like Jacksonville, but he rarely throws a pick.
QB Harassment Factor: Advantage Jacksonville. Both teams have an average pass rush, with the Jaguars able to generate more sacks without blitzing. The Jaguar secondary creates more turnovers than the injury-plagued Steeler secondary, and it remains to be seen how much of an impact Troy Polamalu can have on this game.
Running Game Factor: Advantage Jacksonville. The Jaguars hit you with thunder and lightning and are the best rushing team in the AFC. RB Fred Taylor should have extra motivation for the Jaguars, while speedy RB Willie Parker will watch from the sidelines for the Steelers. The Jaguar run defense is excellent while Pittsburgh has been porous since getting shredded at New England.
Third Down Conversion: Advantage Pittsburgh. The Steelers are very effective in third down situations with accurate short passing from QB Ben Roethlisberger and power RB Najeh Devenport. Pittsburgh converts an excellent 46.8% of their third downs while Jacksonville is very good at 45.7%.

Bottom Line: I think the Jacksonville Jaguars control this game from the onset and I do not believe the final score will be as close as the 29-22 game that these two teams played a few weeks ago. Jacksonville wins by two touchdowns.

Divisional Round:

(1) New England Patriots versus (5) Jacksonville Jaguars

This is the possible matchup that many people are talking about, saying that the Jaguars are best equipped to upset the Patriots. Let’s see how accurate that assessment is.

QB Mistake Factor: Advantage New England. Tom Brady averages an astounding 19.93 pass attempts per INT/SACK. David Garrard has been excellent, but he cannot even approach those numbers at 12.03. The Patriots have a better QB and better pass protection, so let’s get past this one quickly.
QB Harassment Factor: Advantage New England. The Patriots recorded an AFC-best 47 sacks and picked off the opposing QB 19 times this season. Those numbers are inflated by the fact that the Patriot defense was always playing with a big lead, and when they were not, the Patriots defense gave up quite a few yards and points. Do not let the numbers fool you, the Jaguars have an excellent defense that is as good or better than New England’s, and they will be very physical with the Patriots.
Running Game: Advantage Jacksonville. Jacksonville is going to run the ball very effectively against the Patriots. Believe it. Despite what the numbers say, the Patriots have one of the worst run defenses in the entire league, and Jacksonville has the second-best rushing attack in the NFL. I expect Jacksonville to easily exceed their season average of 150 yards on the ground while the Jaguar defense will hold New England to well under 100 yards rushing. Big advantage here for Jacksonville, especially if the weather is poor.
Third Down Conversion: Advantage New England. The Patriots convert 48.2% on third down while Jacksonville is very respectable at 45.7%.

Bottom Line: This is a difficult game to predict without knowing the weather conditions on the field at game time. I expect this to be an extremely close game. Jacksonville should be able to possess the ball for the majority of the game behind their running game and good conversion rate on third down, which will limit the number of opportunities for the Patriot offense. I think this game will resemble the Patriots win over the Ravens, with the Patriots pulling out the game late, 27-24.

(2) Indianapolis Colts versus (3) San Diego Chargers

I think the Colts enter this game healthy, motivated, and ready to roll over a Charger team that beat them in the rainy muck during the regular season. It is rare for the defending Super Bowl champions to have motivation and revenge on their side, but the Colts will have both against San Diego and New England. As we have said earlier, both the Chargers and Patriots have already beaten the champs this season, and it is going to be awfully tough to beat them for a second time.

QB Mistake Factor: Advantage Indianapolis. Peyton Manning averages 14.71 pass attempts per INT/SACK and those numbers look a lot worse than they should be due to injuries suffered by Marvin Harrison and key members of the offensive line. Those guys should be healthy and the problems that resulted from their injuries should disappear.
QB Harassment Factor: Advantage San Diego. The Chargers forced Peyton Manning into 5 INTs during their first meeting, and although I do not expect them to duplicate that effort, they are capable of getting to Manning both in the backfield and the secondary. The Colts pass rush is depleted without Dwight Freeney, but their speed out of the Tampa-2 should force Philip Rivers into a few turnovers.
Running Game Factor: PUSH. The Chargers have the best running back in the game, LaDainian Tomlinson, and he will get some yards against the Colt run defense. However, the Colt defense is much better against the run than the numbers suggest, mainly because the Colts have played six games against the top five running teams in the AFC. Colts RB Joseph Addai should get his fair share of yardage against a Charger defense that is susceptible to the run as well.
Third Down Conversion: Advantage Indianapolis. The Colts are the class of the league in this category, converting almost half of their third-down opportunities. The Chargers are not nearly as good in this area, converting only 39.3% of the time.

Bottom Line: Many people are touting the Chargers in this game, which I think is a joke. I like the Colts in this game and big. The Colts have a better QB, more weapons on offense, better coaching, and a better defense. I think the only shot the Chargers have is to create some scoring opportunities with their specials teams play, which is stellar. The Colts win by two touchdowns, 31-17.

Conference Championship:

(1) New England Patriots versus (2) Indianapolis Colts

The epic rematch hits television screens everywhere on January 20th. Let’s try and predict what will happen.

QB Mistake Factor: Advantage New England. Tom Brady averages 19.93 pass attempts per INT/SACK versus 14.71 for Peyton Manning. I think both QBs are sacked a couple times in this game, and each throws two INTs. The impact of those plays will probably determine the outcome of the game. If you remember, New England sealed their victory against the Colts with a forced fumble late in the game.
QB Harassment Factor: PUSH. It is very difficult to confuse Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, especially when they have seen as much of their opponent as these two have. The Colts will have the advantage of going against a better, faster 3-4 scheme run by San Diego in preparation for the bigger, slower 3-4 of the Patriots. The situation will be similar to last year, when the Colts had to figure out the Ravens hybrid 3-4 defense which allowed them to dissect and shred the Patriot defense the following week.
Running Game Factor: Advantage Indianapolis. The Colt run defense is better than the numbers suggest while the Patriot run defense is much worse than the numbers suggest. I think the Colts have the edge here, if only slight. With the Colts offensive line intact, Joseph Addai should have another big game against the Patriots.
Third Down Conversion: Advantage Indianapolis. The Colts covert 50% of their third downs while the Patriots convert almost as efficiently. How much of an impact will a healthy third-down specialist like WR Marvin Harrison have on the number for Indy?

Bottom Line: The facts here are simple. The New England Patriots averaged almost 37 points per game this season. If they had scored 37 points against the Colts in this game last year, they still would have lost. I do not question that the Patriots will be able to score points, I just question whether they can prevent the Colts from scoring as many points or more.

Let’s start with the basics here. Last year, the Colts won this game 38-35 after trailing 20-3. This year, the Patriots are scoring many more points (+12.7) and giving up more points (+2.3) as well. Overall they are, statistically, 10.4 PPG better in 2007 than in 2006. The Colts are significantly better on defense, giving up 6.1 fewer PPG, are are scoring more on offense as well (+1.4) for an overall improvement of 7.5 PPG in 2007 over 2006. That suggests that the Patriots are 2.9 PPG improved over the Colts this year, suggesting that this year’s game will end 38-38. Are you starting to get the picture? These teams are very evenly matched.

The Patriots won the regular season matchup 24-20, representing the most points scored against the Colts all season. The Patriots are not going to put up 35+ points on the 2007 Colts in the cold. This contest will be a lower scoring affair, but not by much. Both teams will create some turnovers, both QBs will be effective in the passing game, and Joseph Addai should have the advantage over Lawrence Maroney. I think the return of WR Marvin Harrison and a healthier Colts team combined with the motivation and revenge factor that the Colts will have going for them is the difference here. Colts win 33-31 on Adam Vinatieri’s fourth FG with time winding down.

AFC Super Bowl Representative: Indianapolis Colts